Casino Bat Beating Scene
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Introduction
'Bad beat' is a term that can mean having an outstanding chance of winning a bet, only to still lose. The term can be used in any form of gambling but is most commonly applied to poker. Many poker rooms offer a progressive jackpot for very unlikely bad beats. Various other rules are added to ensure that only surprising bad beats win. Below I present tables of bad beat probabilities, starting with the most liberal rules, and ending with the most stringent. The most stringent rules, the 'Bad Beat Type 3', are the most common, in my experience.
Following are the rules for a type 1 bad beat.
- Both the bad beat and winning hand must be the best possible combination of five cards. In cases where the same hand can be created multiple ways (for example player has AK and the board shows AAKKQ) the player's hole cards will take priority.
- Both the bad beat and winning hand must make use of both hole cards.
- A full house must be beaten by a four of a kind or higher.
The rules for a type 2 bad beat are the same as type 1, plus any four of a kind, whether the bad beat hand or winning hand, must contain a pocket pair.
The rules for a type 3 bad beat are the same as type 2, plus a full house may not make use of a three of a kind entirely on the board.
In my experience, is the most common format for bad beat rules is type 3. The additional rule for type 3 makes very little difference, compared to type 2.
The following table shows the probability of each bad beat hand under all three types of rules. The table is based on a ten-player game in which nobody ever folds. The probabilities are for any pair of players meeting the qualifying rules. If you want to know YOUR probability of winning, you should divide the probability in the table by 10.
Bad Beat Probabilities
| Bad Beat Hand | Type 1 | Type 2 | Type 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Any full house | 0.00203329 | 0.00050305 | 0.00049508 |
| Full house, three 3's or higher | 0.00189512 | 0.00046978 | 0.00046204 |
| Full house, three 4's or higher | 0.00175159 | 0.00043444 | 0.00042728 |
| Full house, three 5's or higher | 0.00160333 | 0.00039706 | 0.00039028 |
| Full house, three 6's or higher | 0.00144965 | 0.00035741 | 0.00035145 |
| Full house, three 7's or higher | 0.0012936 | 0.00031767 | 0.00031266 |
| Full house, three 8's or higher | 0.00113492 | 0.00027775 | 0.00027355 |
| Full house, three 9's or higher | 0.00097379 | 0.00023772 | 0.00023445 |
| Full house, three T's or higher | 0.00081113 | 0.00019759 | 0.00019503 |
| Full house, three J's or higher | 0.00064763 | 0.00015708 | 0.00015509 |
| Full house, three Q's or higher | 0.00048533 | 0.00011838 | 0.00011682 |
| Full house, three K's or higher | 0.00032561 | 0.00008130 | 0.00008033 |
| Full house, three A's or higher | 0.00016964 | 0.00004608 | 0.00004579 |
| Full house, aces full of 3's or higher | 0.00016004 | 0.00004350 | 0.00004322 |
| Full house, aces full of 4's or higher | 0.00014986 | 0.00004080 | 0.00004052 |
| Full house, aces full of 5's or higher | 0.00013898 | 0.00003797 | 0.00003763 |
| Full house, aces full of 6's or higher | 0.00012749 | 0.00003504 | 0.00003469 |
| Full house, aces full of 7's or higher | 0.00011580 | 0.00003233 | 0.00003203 |
| Full house, aces full of 8's or higher | 0.00010347 | 0.00002957 | 0.00002925 |
| Full house, aces full of 9's or higher | 0.00009067 | 0.00002673 | 0.00002645 |
| Full house, aces full of T's or higher | 0.00007714 | 0.00002383 | 0.00002359 |
| Full house, aces full of J's or higher | 0.00006286 | 0.00002064 | 0.0000204 |
| Full house, aces full of Q's or higher | 0.00004793 | 0.00001738 | 0.00001721 |
| Full house, aces full of K's or higher | 0.00003230 | 0.00001408 | 0.00001402 |
| Any four of a kind | 0.00001601 | 0.00001086 | 0.00001081 |
| Four 3's or higher | 0.00001437 | 0.00000996 | 0.00000992 |
| Four 4's or higher | 0.0000127 | 0.00000900 | 0.00000902 |
| Four 5's or higher | 0.00001099 | 0.00000805 | 0.00000804 |
| Four 6's or higher | 0.00000934 | 0.00000705 | 0.00000707 |
| Four 7's or higher | 0.0000078 | 0.00000613 | 0.00000611 |
| Four 8's or higher | 0.0000064 | 0.00000525 | 0.00000519 |
| Four 9's or higher | 0.00000519 | 0.00000439 | 0.00000435 |
| Four T's or higher | 0.00000414 | 0.00000359 | 0.00000357 |
| Four J's or higher | 0.00000317 | 0.00000287 | 0.00000285 |
| Four Q's or higher | 0.00000246 | 0.00000226 | 0.00000224 |
| Four K's or higher | 0.00000193 | 0.00000180 | 0.00000179 |
| Four A's or higher | 0.00000157 | 0.00000149 | 0.00000147 |
| Any straight flush | 0.0000012 | 0.00000122 | 0.00000121 |
| Straight flush 6 high or higher | 0.00000105 | 0.00000107 | 0.00000105 |
| Straight flush 7 high or higher | 0.00000089 | 0.00000091 | 0.00000090 |
| Straight flush 8 high or higher | 0.00000073 | 0.00000074 | 0.00000074 |
| Straight flush 9 high or higher | 0.00000056 | 0.00000059 | 0.00000058 |
| Straight flush T high or higher | 0.00000041 | 0.00000043 | 0.00000042 |
| Straight flush J high or higher | 0.00000028 | 0.00000027 | 0.00000027 |
| Straight flush Q high or higher | 0.00000012 | 0.00000012 | 0.00000012 |
Methodology
The above tables are the result of random simulations of about 2.5 billion rounds each.
Further Reading
The video poker variant World Series of Poker - Final Table Bonus features a bad beat jackpot. See my section on that game for more information.
Brian Alspach has a very good page on Texas Hold'em, including a section on the Bad Beat Jackpot at Party Poker.
Written by: Michael Shackleford
Many people will be visiting a casino this summer, whether on a trip to Vegas, on a cruise ship, or just at a local casino during a 'staycation.'
But before you go, you may want to know which games give you the best chance of winning.
So we went behind the scene at two casinos, and spoke with the game managers, to find out which games give you an edge.
Table Games Your Best Bet
Jay Bean, a Caesar's floor manager, agreed to sit down with us and talk about the games with the best odds.
He said many people don't realize that table games have much better odds than slots. They are intimidated by thoughts of card sharks taking their money, with images of an intense Texas Hold 'Em tournament in their minds, and so they stick with the safe games: the slots.
But they are doing themselves a disservice, he said.
Bean's advice? After you've spent some time on the slot machines, move on to the Blackjack table, and start by just observing.
1. Blackjack
Blackjack has the best odds of winning, with a house edge of just 1 percent in most casinos, Bean said.
Plus, you are playing against only the dealer, not hooded poker champions.
'Blackjack is one of our easiest games to play,' Bean said. 'You're just looking for a number that beats the dealer's number without going over 21.'
If you're a novice, Bean said to sit down during a less busy time, such as the afternoon, and the dealer will walk you through the game.
But the same is not true with poker: You should practice the game with your friends first, at home, Bean said, until you are comfortable with it. Bean said novices are best off passing on the poker tables, where yes, the competition can be tough.
You can find out more information about the game of blackjack at the following link:
http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/
2. Craps
So from the Blackjack table, he suggests moving on to the dice game Craps, the game with the second best odds, also nearly 50-50.
The Craps table can be a bit intimidating for the beginner with all the boxes on the table, Bean admitted. But it's really not tough, and it has one of your best chances of winning. In the end, all you are really doing is betting on a dice roll.
For more information on craps, visit:
http://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/
3. Roulette
Bean said your next stop should be the Roulette wheel. It's simple, and pays fairly well.
'So you bet on your favorite numbers,' Bean said. 'The dealer spins, and if your number comes in you win.'
If you stick to betting on just Reds or Blacks, you have nearly a 50-50 chance of walking away a winner. If it lands on red when you choose red, you will double your bet, Bean explained.
While it may seem you have an even chance of winning by simply choosing a color, there is one catch that gives the house its edge: the extra green 0 and 00 position on the wheel. It's on all American roulette wheels.
Or, if you feel lucky, play just one number. It's hard to win, but if you do it pays out 36 to 1.
For more information on roulette, visit:
http://wizardofodds.com/games/roulette/
Worst Odds
Your worst odds? The casinos, understandably, did not want to talk about games with poor odds.
So we turned to Forbes Magazine, which in a report about Best Bets at the Casino, said two popular games -- the Wheel of Fortune and the ever-popular slot machines -- have the lowest odds of winning, with a house edge of 10 percent or more.
The Experts Agree
Professor of Analytics Michael Magazine has crunched the numbers, and agreed that blackjack is the best way to go home with money in your pockets. He said if you take a little time to learn the game, you have the best odds of winning.
'You are somewhere between 44 percent to 48 percent in every single hand of winning,' he said, noting that no other casino game gives you odds that good.
But Magazine cautioned that he's not promoting gambling, because he said even games with the best odds still favor the house.
'Play it long enough and you will lose. In the long term the house doesn't lose,' Magazine said.
If You Love The Slots....
Finally, if you really enjoy playing the slots, here is some good information to know, from state casino reports we examined.
Casino Bat Beating Scene Video
With slots, the more money you put in per bet, the higher your chance of winning. If you put the max in a penny machine, which is usually around 50 cents, you have much better odds than if you put in 2 cents.
In addition, penny slots have the lowest odds, with $1 and $5 slots paying much better.
Casino Bat Beating Scene 2
Always gamble responsibly, and don't waste your money.
__________________________
You can learn more about specific odds of slots machines in each state that has casino gambling by visiting the American Casino Guide.
Don't Waste Your Money is a registered trademark of the EW Scripps Co.
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